Updates to this story
Mongolia has emerged as a new contender in the race for world domination in rare earths.
Bloomberg Businessweek has reported that Japan plans to send a study group to Mongolia this month to look at rare-earth deposits with the Mongolian government. The two countries have also agreed to expedite talks for an Economic Partnership Agreement and to develop coal and uranium projects.
According to another report on The Japan Times, Japan has agreed to help Mongolia develop mines to exploit the valuable metals. Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan and his visiting counterpart, Sukhbaatar Batbold, struck the deal on Saturday.
Kan was reported as saying: "Mongolia has high potential in mineral material development and this will serve the two countries' national interests.”
Batbold added that Mongolia would be able to produce value-added products by using advanced Japanese technology.
Interestingly, Batbold was reported to actually be visiting Tokyo for another reason - to attend a retirement ceremony being held yesterday for his country’s sumo wrestler grand champion Asashoryu, a yokozuna *, who left the sport in February.
But regardless of sumo wrestler retirement parties, the two leaders met and the agreement was struck. And the timing couldn't have been better as the announcement came one day after Japan revealed a whole raft of plans aimed at reducing its dependency on China for its valuable rare earths supply.
Rare earths are essential components for all kinds of technology, from iPods to computer memory, as well as other essential everyday items such as cars and wind turbines.
And Japan, along with many other countries, has been getting increasingly worried about China’s monopoly in this area - China controls more than 95 percent of the global supply of the minerals but has been tightening up its export quota.
Meanwhile, experts have forecast that Australia could benefit from this situation and go on to become one of the world’s leading producers of the vital minerals in a few years’ time.
According to AFP, industry sources and analysts said Australia has vast reserves of the obscure metals - maybe even up to 46 percent of the world’s rare earth deposits.
"By about 2014 we should be one of the dominant suppliers of rare earths to the world. And we will compete with China for that," AFP said it was told by a long-term investor. "We're a small country but we're going to be the Saudi Arabia of rare earths."
Meanwhile, Matthew James, vice president of corporate and business development at Australia's Lynas Corporation, said people touched rare earths every day of their lives but they were not aware of the applications they were in.
He added: "They are underpinning societal trends which are not going to reverse. We have to become more energy efficient, we have to become better in managing our environmental footprint.
"People are not going to accept larger, clunkier devices, they want smaller, faster, lighter. These are trends which are driving growth in the rare earth market."
Mr James told AFP he predicted an even bigger change may be on the cards - and that Lynas could be selling rare earths to China within a decade as the country's supplies dwindled in the face of soaring consumer demand.
*EyeSee Yokozuna is the highest rank in sumo. The name literally means "horizontal rope".
5 Febuary 2011:
Permanent decisions about Chinese REE exports have happened.
The Non Chinese world needs to come to grip with the New Reality:
How to find and fund Non Chinese REE mining and manufacturing sources for all Non Chinese demand?
Let me explain the change that has happened:
"China and US shoot satellites in standoff" Telegraph Group Ltd. UK
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8299495/WikiLeaks-US-and-China-in-military-standoff-over-space-missiles.html
Dates: January 2007, February 2008, January 2010, February 2010.
Did these international incidents cause the Chinese to change Chinese REE export policy?
Did the Chinese determine that sharing REE with potential military adversaries is not in Chinese Strategic Interest?
If these statements are true, how permanent is the Chinese REE export ban? Particularly of the scarce and strategically important HREE?
How permanent is the Chinese ban of Dy Tb Y ?
Permanent decisions about Chinese REE exports have been made as a result of this incident?
Obviously there are other considerations, e.g, relative scarcity of materials, self interest in developing their own REE manufacturing sector. As the Chinese move up the technological REE manufacturing chain, they shall consume most if not all of Chinese produced REEs.
Further, China claims that China is now “environmentally” concerned?
These “official” explanations seemed insufficient to explain the drastic change in REE exports and total ban on Dy Tb Y.
Addendum comments: 6 Febuary 2011:
Suddenly the earth-shaking game-changing REE world events of the last year make sense.
Sudden severe Chinese REE export restrictions and the Chinese ban of Dy Tb Y make perfect sense.
Suddenly why are we surprised that our tiny fledging REE miners have doubled, tripled, quadrupled, or more within one year?
“There are two ways to live: you can live as if nothing is a miracle; you can live as if everything is a miracle.” -- Albert Einstein.
Seemed like a “miracle” didn’t it? Guess what? That’s how things appear until more facts are revealed?
Finally the China and USA “star wars race” conflict was revealed 2 February 2011 by UK Telegraph. (See attached links to numerous articles).
This conflict extends to the rest of the Western world. For example, China’s fear of Strategic Missle Defense Shield in Japan by the USA.
A major change in policy is often due to a significant incident. Why are we surprised?
Please do not take my opinion as fact for yourself. Please review the maze of documents just released by UK Telgraph. Come up with your own judgements. (Links attached).
Please spend 10 minutes or 10 hours doing your own analysis of the just revealed UK Telegraph documents, and decide in your own mind the permanent consequences to REE Mining/Manufacturing.
The Chinese shall ban most rare earths and certainly any HREE that have military applications. The West shall never again trust the Chinese for vital REE resources.
Yes the REE world is forever changed. Irreversibly. Permanently.
The Non Chinese REE mining and manufacturing world is suddenly called upon to deliver 50 percent of the world’s REE supply.
Impossible REE demands shall be placed on the Non Chinese REE Miners/Manufacturers. Can we deliver? I doubt we can.
Severe pressure shall be placed upon each and every Non Chinese Miner to produce. Currently, only 7 Non Chinese REE miners are expected in production by 2015 (Alkane, Arafura, Avalon, Great Western, Molycorp, Lynas, and Dong Pao of Vietnam).
Personally I doubt that these 7 select companies can replace 50 percent of the world’s rare earth needs, even at current levels.
Perhaps with more warning, more awareness of the 2 February 2011 revelations, our Non Chinese miners could have geared up faster, expanded more rapidly, more money could have been raised, more workers trained, etc.?
We have been living in a world based on old assumptions. China: The Rare Earth Monopolist would be our REE “Mama”. China would provide any shortfall that the Non Chinese miners could not provide in the next few years?
New Reality: Virtually all of the Non Chinese demand needs to be supplied by Non Chinese Mining and Manufacturing companies, i.e., 50 percent of the world’s total use of REEs. Virtually all of the already Chinese banned REE: Dy Tb Y. China has already banned 41 REE manufactured products. How soon!
The progression to a total Chinese REE ban is inevitable and may happen at any time.
Is the Non Chinese world prepared for severe shortages? Shortages that the US Department of Energy said in December 2010 shall last at least 15 years? (See attached link).
The world’s most successful businesses: Siemens, General Electric, Toyota, Honda, Apple, etc. and governmental needs: Japan, USA, EU, South Korea, India are all threatened.
China: No safety valve for the world. See Zhang Anwen statement: Video attached.
Solutions happen when actions are taken.
May I ask a question? How can we come to our own personal interpretations, and merge our collective interpretation of the New Reality? What actions can we take? How can we “spread the word” of real shortages, real need to increase Non Chinese REE supply capability?
What obligations do governments have to mitigate potential damage to their National Defense, and potential crippling of businesses?
Is there a true REE crisis? A true emergency?
If there is an impending disaster of supply shortfall, what can we do to make a difference? Individually? Collectively? Individual REE companies? REE companies collectively? REE industry collectively?
The future is in our hands. Our collective hands. We will be judged as an industry by our actions.
Yes these are great opportunities for the Non Chinese REE mining/manufacturing industry, but at the same time severely difficult times ahead even working together.
Can we accomplish a nearly impossible task: fulfilling our call to provide the modern world with a sufficient supply of REE?
How will history judge us?
Attached links:
2 February 2011 UK Telegraph Ltd:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8299495/WikiLeaks-US-and-China-in-military-standoff-over-space-missiles.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8299410/WikiLeaks-timeline-of-the-space-race.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8299491/WikiLeaks-US-vs-China-in-battle-of-the-anti-satellite-space-weapons.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8299408/WikiLeaks-the-race-to-take-control-of-space.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wikileaks-files/china-wikileaks/8299317/REQUEST-TO-ALLIES-FOR-NEW-DEMARCHE-TO-CHINA-REGARDING-CHINAS-JANUARY-2007-ANTI-SATELLITE-TEST.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wikileaks-files/china-wikileaks/8299318/CHINAS-ANGST-OVER-U.S.-SATELLITE-INTERCEPTION.html
USA Department of Energy Report: Critical Materials Strategy December 2010:
http://www.energy.gov/news/documents/criticalmaterialsstrategy.pdf
Zhang Anwen a leading Chinese government advisor and Deputy Secretary General of Inner Mongolia Rare Earth Guild who in Beijing conference Spring 2010 said:
“Foreign countries should calmly and logically think about this and develop their own mines for their own needs. Our (China) resources are diminishing and we (China) need these minerals for our own use.”
(Minutes 2:46 to 3:20 in the 6:19 minute video)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHs2lGsqFKU&p=19D44B68A08E1850